| By Garikai Chimuka,
on February 14 2008 14:54
|
Favoured : 27 |
The welcome
entry of Dr Makoni into the political fray has generated intense
mixed reactions. To some it has generated extraordinary excitement
whereas to others it has meant skepticism. I personally believe
that Dr Makoni faces a mammoth task if the Mavambo/Kusile/Dawn
project is to succeed.
Politics is a game of
strategy, structures and timing and Dr Makoni can still win it if
he can craft the formula right but at the same time he can be
buried for good if he miscalculates his move. Like what Obama
always say, a struggle against vested interests will not be easy
.It will need a lot of ingenuity and several options and
alternatives to build and sustain the momentum. It is in this
context that I honestly believe that Makoni faces a tough task.
Will he be equal to the task? What strategies can he employ to
victory?
One of the greatest failures of the
current opposition has been to come up with a single strategy to
campaign in both the urban and rural areas.Dr Makoni can avoid it
by coming with the following strategies
In the urban areas, the constituencies can
be divided into the low and high density surburbs.It will be
relatively easy for Dr Makoni to win the hearts of people in the
low density suburbs since they are a propertied class who are more
likely to favor an orderly transition as compared to an uncertain
transition if Tsvangirai is to win given that Makoni seem to have
some support within the security structure which Tsvangirai does
not have. The majority of captains of industry who are likely to
support Makoni also reside in these areas. What is necessary is for
the Makoni team to field credible candidates who are electable. The
major campaign strategy will be small group meetings, lobbying
influential individuals through their clubs etc and even
establishing a call centre where volunteers can use the phone to
reach out to the electrorate.The message should be to encourage the
voters to go in their thousands and vote
In the high density suburbs, a lot of work
needs to be done. Firstly, building structures to each and every
street in the ghettos. There is also need for party visibility by
printing T/shirts and other paraphernalia showing the party symbol
so that people may be aware of the symbol. After forming the core
structure, there is need to mobilize a massive rally, say at
Zimbabwe grounds so that Dr Makoni quash the rumors’ that
have been talked by his detractors who are saying he is an agent of
ZANU PF.The first major rally must be a psychological game of
numbers. Massive organization is needed. Its success or failure
will set the tone for the whole campaign. A massive rally will
create momentum and win all the skeptics to Dr Makoni’s side.
He can also take advantage of the rally to tell the urbanites to
send the message of Mavambo/Kusile/Dawn to the rural areas which is
very difficult to penetrate. He can cap it all by also making
impromptu door to door campaigns or walkabouts in the high density
areas. In short there is need for a blitz in the urban high density
areas. There is need for a permanent presence by activists until
election time that should encourage people to vote.
In the rural areas, it
will be where the decisive battle will be fought. The first stage
where this battle will be won or lost is the selection of
candidates. Unlike in urban areas where the candidate do not matter
per se since people vote for parties of the cult of their leaders,
in the rural areas it’s the reverse. This is one of the
blunders that the opposition has been making before because the
rural folk want an MP they can relate to. Hence there is need to
select well known people who already has goodwill in the community.
Prof Moyo’s victory in Tholotsho in 2005 shows the importance
of this point. Moyo quickly realized that he needed a political
base and started doing some developmental things that endeared him
to the people. There are so many well meaning citizens in the rural
areas that have been extending their generosity in these areas and
they must be identified, persuaded and registered. If it is late to
field them as candidates, then they can be part of the campaign
team.
Once the candidates and credible teams to
campaign in specific areas are identified, the campaign must roll
into gear. From the beginning, they must use people in the area and
underground methods to campaign like door to door one on one
because early rallies will result in ZANU PF employing violence and
intimidating the people. In areas where the notorious ZANU PF
militias are strong, it may be important to infiltrate them and
finally recruit them. A campaign blitz with open distribution of
T/shirts, party regalia etc must only be implemented in the final
weeks of the campaign where it will be late for the ZANU PF
intimidation machinery to respond. Hence those who are still in
ZANU PF who back Makoni must only come in the open in rural areas
in the final week of the campaign.
Another urgent strategy in the rural areas
is to clandestinely recruit village heads and headman who
haven’t benefited much from ZANU PF patronage. It’s
only the chiefs who have benefited and hence the village heads in
particular are ready for harvesting. These will be decisive for the
rural vote.
To conclude, the campaign strategies will
never be cast in stone. What is needed is ambushing the regime and
at the same time knowing their strategies in advance for when the
hunted know how the hunter hunts, then the hunting is over. |